2023年11月30日 星期四

Charlie Munger, dead at 99 Wednesday, Nov 28, 2023

Wednesday, Nov 28

Charlie Munger, dead at 99

One of history's great investors, Charlie Munger, died on Tuesday in California just over a month shy of his 100th birthday. He served as Warren Buffett's right-hand man and Berkshire Hathaway's vice chairman for the last 45 years.

‌Buffett said Tuesday the company "could not have been built to its present status without Charlie’s inspiration, wisdom and participation."

Munger was perhaps known best for always having a quip at the ready during Berkshire's annual shareholder meetings where he would sit alongside Buffett and field questions for hours.

In this year's letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders, Buffett spent nearly two pages sharing Charlie's wisdom offered in an interview he'd given last year.

"You have to keep learning if you want to become a great investor," Munger said. "When the world changes, you must change." Munger, who began his career as a lawyer and ended it leading one of the country's largest conglomerates, lived this life lesson.

Munger's quotes have been collected in books and articles across the media landscape, most completely in "Poor Charlie's Almanack." And like any sage, Munger had just the right way to have the final word: "The best armor of old age is a well-spent life preceding it."

他是一個我很崇拜的人。

聰明 / 努力 / 專心

不造作 / 活出自己人生

數學 / 法律 / 心理學 /  普通常識


Nothing Beats Having a Great Partner 

Charlie and I think pretty much alike. But what it takes me a page to explain, he sums up in a sentence. His version, moreover, is always more clearly reasoned and also more artfully – some might add bluntly – stated. 

Here are a few of his thoughts, many lifted from a very recent podcast:
• The world is full of foolish gamblers, and they will not do as well as the patient investor. 
• If you don’t see the world the way it is, it’s like judging something through a distorted lens. 
• All I want to know is where I’m going to die, so I’ll never go there. And a related thought: Early on, write your desired obituary – and then behave accordingly. 
• If you don’t care whether you are rational or not, you won’t work on it. Then you will stay irrational and get lousy results. 
• Patience can be learned. Having a long attention span and the ability to concentrate on one thing for a long time is a huge advantage. 
• You can learn a lot from dead people. Read of the deceased you admire and detest. 
• Don’t bail away in a sinking boat if you can swim to one that is seaworthy. 
• A great company keeps working after you are not; a mediocre company won’t do that. 
• Warren and I don’t focus on the froth of the market. We seek out good long-term investments and stubbornly hold them for a long time. 
• Ben Graham said, “Day to day, the stock market is a voting machine; in the long term it’s a weighing machine.” If you keep making something more valuable, then some wise person is going to notice it and start buying. 
• There is no such thing as a 100% sure thing when investing. Thus, the use of leverage is dangerous. A string of wonderful numbers times zero will always equal zero. Don’t count on getting rich twice. 
• You don’t, however, need to own a lot of things in order to get rich. 
• You have to keep learning if you want to become a great investor. When the world changes, you must change. 
• Warren and I hated railroad stocks for decades, but the world changed and finally the country had four huge railroads of vital importance to the American economy. We were slow to recognize the change, but better late than never. 
• Finally, I will add two short sentences by Charlie that have been his decision-clinchers for decades: “Warren, think more about it. You’re smart and I’m right.” 

And so it goes. I never have a phone call with Charlie without learning something. And, while he makes me think, he also makes me laugh. 

************ 
I will add to Charlie’s list a rule of my own: Find a very smart high-grade partner – preferably slightly older than you – and then listen very carefully to what he says.

2023年11月8日 星期三

最大的BACKFIRE再次燃點

為免被情緒騎劫,看來短期的投資活動可能要減慢、避險。

2023年11月5日 星期日

讀後感:我如何思考基督教

11月議息會議美聯儲再次暫停加息,維持利率在5.25%-5.50%區間不變、繼續縮表計劃。

儘管美國經濟依然在增長,核心通脹有所反彈,指向更多加息(或更少降息次數)的必要性。美聯儲通過預期管理,配合長期利率保持高位,推動金融條件持續收緊來“代替”加息。

美聯儲尚未決定12月是否再次加息,但整體釋放鴿派信號。依然強調關注一籃子經濟數據的變化,包括近期通脹反彈後是否再次回落,勞動力市場供需再平衡,以及薪資增速的下行幅度。

化繁為簡:

失業率 (4.4%) VS 3.80%

通脹率 (2.0%) VS 3.67%


物質世界之外真的有一位神嗎?

憑著我們對宇宙和世界的認識,當中的奧妙和美麗,我想一般人一定起碼相信有種神秘的力量在當中,把這力量的源頭歸納到偶然實在也没有太大說服力,一般人是迷惑於這力量的源頭而已。有了這個基本的相通點,才有討論宗教的意義。

耶穌有什麼特別?

耶穌如果只是上帝,那麼祂的所作所為其實是太容易了; 耶穌如果只是人類,那麼祂的所作所為一定是騙子。可是經歷2000多年,歷史學家等的考究已起碼肯定了祂的經歷確實是真有其事。但祂經歷了完全的降服與羞辱,因為祂是上帝,所以完全;因為祂是人類,所以降服並受羞辱。這只是作一個示範,告訴基督徒如何可以透過謙卑而戰勝死亡,得到新生命。

基督教的道德觀在社會有用嗎?

世俗的道德是相對的,是有時效性的。基督的愛是郤會帶領大家繼續往前走,超越一切,不稱之為善,没有任何名稱,也没有刻意去想這個東西。理性的男人應該作為一家的頭,女人天生是家庭的捍衛者。

三一神是怎麼一回事?

神之所以是三一的目的,祂之所以成為三一,乃是為著將父對人一切的計畫,藉子的工作,靈的內住,實施在信徒裏,這是神為何成為三一的目的。這也是新約教訓的重點。

2800名共創明Teen學員今天畢業,自己作為友師,雖然因為個人的原因參與不太積極,但我覺得這和自己理想中的扶貧是吻合的,對於同學來說,一定比起正式的學校生活更有所裨益,至於明年是否要再重覆,那我就有些懷疑。有些東西,其實不太適合每年都做,邊際效益會急速下降,也容易變質。

2023年11月2日 星期四

東西二邊走,左右可逢源,騎牆好蝕底

美國聯邦儲備委員會結束為期兩天的貨幣政策會議,宣佈維持當前5.25%-5.50%的聯邦基金利率目標區間不變,自去年3月開啟本輪加息週期以來,連續第二次暫停加息。美聯儲主席鮑威爾在議息會議結束後的發佈會上表示,通脹仍遠高於目標水平,要將通脹率降低到2%還有很長的路要走;美聯儲目前並沒有考慮、也沒有討論過未來降息的問題,美聯儲的問題是,是否應該進一步加息。聯儲局的操作就如一部機器地跟隨著泰來定律。

失業率 (4.4%) VS 3.80%

通脹率 (2.0%) VS 3.67%

證監會、金融監管局表態吸引資金入市、打擊非法金融活動,推動股票發行註冊制走深走實,加強基礎制度和機制建設,加大投資端改革力度,吸引更多的中長期資金,活躍資本市場,更好發揮資本市場樞紐功能。全面強化“五大監管”,探索構建中國特色金融監管體系的“四梁八柱”,大力推進金融強國建設;堅決落實強監管嚴監管要求。堅決懲治重大違法違規行為。嚴厲打擊非法金融活動。國家的操作就如一個喜歡說教的父母,全面監管下的發展一定是區間游走,關係不佳。