2021年1月31日 星期日

2021投資主題展望

2021的投資主題主要是延續2020年的三大主題壘加後疫情的影響。

2021主題1 - 中國繼續借鏡美股藉股巿創造財富

2020年真是奇幻的一年。這一年結束了,最近Fackbook上常見到大家的年度檢討,可惜彷彿隔世的世紀疫症並未隨著疫苗的出現而立即消失,中美並没有好像大家期望的那般擦槍走火,香港亦没有出現如大家所期待的更換領導人......我們曾經後悔自己没有在沙士期間置業致富,也感慨過自己没有經歷1987股災或1967的暴動後財富重新分配的機會,反之,我們郤又一次又一次地錯過一個擦身而過的機會。

百年未遇的疫情與百年未有之國際大變局相互叠加並相互激蕩,對現有國際格局和國際秩序形成強烈衝擊,國際體系的「質變」山兩欲來。一場突如其來的公共衞生事件觸動世界格局之變,在二十一世紀的第三個十年到來之際,人類已走向新舊世界的歷史交匯點。國際貨幣基金組織則從經濟和金融方面將其定性為繼1929年「大蕭條」、2008年「大衰退」之後的2020年「大隔離」經濟金融危機。戰略學界將疫情影響比作世界大戰,認為此次疫情是繼一戰、二戰及美蘇冷戰後的「第四次世界大戰」。簡言之,世界因疫情而永遠改變,已不可能重新回到過去,未來形勢沒有最壞只有更壞,其對世界格局和國際秩序的衝擊將是顛覆性的。疫情帶來的衰退對全球經濟造成嚴重傷害,全球經濟複甦前路漫長且易受挫折。

後疫情時代的世界「危」中有「機」,「機」中有「危」,作為一個理性樂觀的世界公民及投資者,總體看「機」遠大於「危」,繼續緊緊抓住這一機遇期,不斷發展壯大自己,推動世界朝著更加公正合理方向發展。大疫之後必有大治,大災之後必有重生,歷經疫情洗禮而重生的世界,仍是一個「千帆競發、萬木爭春」的新世界。

注視: 股價未過份吹捧,具世界觀,業務持續發展的中國概念日常用品公司及品牌股:港交所、安踏、農夫山泉、飛鶴。

2021主題2 - 金融科技大變革,數字貨幣正常化

拜登的新政,耶倫的上場,2021年全球貨幣政策將需要配合擴張的財政政策,貨幣仍將保持寬鬆,至少很難主動收緊。有了2009年QE的經驗,發達國家的實質性通脹風險不大,甚至還有通縮壓力,通過債台高築、貨幣寬鬆來緩解社會深層次矛盾,溫水煮青蛙、飲鴆止渴的路似乎還能延續。一旦主動刺破貨幣幻覺,很容易重演金融危機。伴隨著復蘇、伴隨著階段性的通脹預期的抬頭,總體來說,全球貨幣存量的流動性會保持異常寬鬆。

GME多空對決始末和YOLO的興起,GameStop是連續3年淨虧損的美國最大的游戲銷售公司,也是2020年美股做空股最多的股票。2021年1月11日公司宣布向電商轉型,對基本面改善的期待催化股價上漲。華爾街知名機構「過度」做空GME,引發互聯網散戶社群利用期權等工具與做空機構對決,一度導致百億美金的對沖基金面臨破產壓力,引發美股大調整。此番多空博弈背后反映的是「大放水」后遺症和華爾街的過度貪婪,預示2021年復蘇趨勢下全球股市將有更多波動。個人也十分討厭靠沽空搾取貧苦大眾血汗錢的行為,佔領華爾街行動或者會在疫情底下在悄悄地在網上重整旗鼓。

螞蟻金服被拉下馬,中國的市場監管機構表示,已對電子商務巨頭阿里巴巴啟動反壟斷調查。中國近年已經培育了一批自己的強大的互聯網巨頭,包括數字商務領域的阿里巴巴、京東和拼多多,遊戲、社群媒體和移動支付領域的騰訊,短片娛樂領域的字節跳動,叫車服務領域的滴滴,以及外賣領域的美團。多年來,這些公司一直被譽為中國技術進步的象徵。現在,當局正在密切關注它們的規模和影響力如何影響競爭和商業環境。反科技壟斷的拆骨行或者會在中國優先進行得更徹底。

注視: 比較接地氣,有平等概念的大金融股:郵儲銀行、GBTC、Pypl、Futu

2021主題3 - 個人、社會、國家、地球健康遍地開花 

2020年是屬於醫藥及大健康的,一眾疫苗、生物醫藥及醫療器材股遍地開花。對於醫藥健康企業,這最終來源於個人的醫療健康需求和支付意願。大部分投資者都理解醫藥健康行業是防禦性的,即:個人的健康與經濟週期關聯性不高。要特別注意的是,新興市場的醫藥健康行業具有獨特的增長維度 —隨著各國建設或現代化升級醫院和治療基礎設施,將帶來各年齡段人群對醫療服務和產品的消費普遍增加,產品和服務的短缺將會
持續不斷地催生新的企業。

2020年的股市是屬於新能源汽車的,特斯拉帶著新能源汽車股一路狂奔。在產能、成本和價格的無限循環裡,新能源汽車市場毫無疑問會繼續增大。而且,隨著特斯拉像手機一樣變成了大眾消費品,將逐步形成新的商業模式。即汽車為硬件,像手機那樣裝上操作系統——特別是包括自動駕駛在內的汽車系統。全球汽車將進入“軟時代”,特斯拉在給整個新能源車市場打沖鋒。上海和特斯拉合作的模式是一個重要的示範,而且它還讓整個新能源造車的上下游產業鏈更加透明。2021可能是整個產業遍地開花的年度。

注視: 關注氣候變化,綠色金融、具有全人類健康使命及有
格局觀的優質巨企:Apple、Google、藥明系列、信義系列。

當今世界正經歷百年未有之大變局。或許是歌舞升平的日子過得太舒服了,人類已經漸漸失去了對危機的應對能力。一場疫情,如同照妖鏡,讓裸奔者驚慌失措,也加快了各國實力的此消彼長,帶來世界格局的調整與重塑。謹此互勉。

2021年至今的投資組合回報為+13.73%(同期恒指表現:3.77%, 標普回報:-0.48%, A股回報:+2.02%) 。

2021年1月17日 星期日

數字貨幣的金融

我以前不很了解金融,直到閱讀了陳志武的<<金融通識課>>。

我以前不很了解數字貨幣,直到閱讀了VISA的這封公開信。

Advancing our approach to digital currency

As a global payments technology company, Visa is focused on delivering the greatest value to people, businesses and economies everywhere, regardless of currency, channel or form factor. We’re reshaping how money moves across the globe, and that means pursuing a broad array of technologies and partnerships. In that regard, digital currencies offer an exciting avenue for us to continue doing what we do best: expanding our network-of-networks to support new forms of commerce. 

The concept of digital currency — or a digital version of cash controlled by a private key — was created more than a decade ago, with the launch of Bitcoin. Today, fiat-backed digital currencies, commonly referred to as “stablecoins,” have emerged as a promising new payment innovation, combining the benefits of digital currencies with the stability of existing currencies like the US dollar. It’s a concept that is gaining traction beyond fintechs, and now includes financial institutions and central banks. Consumers and businesses are also adopting digital currencies and circulation is growing rapidly, reaching over $10B in May.1

Visa has been working closely with licensed and regulated digital currency platforms like Coinbase and Fold to provide a bridge between digital currencies and our existing global network of 61 million merchants. Around the world, more than 25 digital currency wallets have linked their services to Visa, giving users an easy way to spend from their digital currency balance using a Visa debit or prepaid credential — anywhere Visa is accepted.

Similar to other digital wallets, digital currency wallets are looking to use the full range of Visa’s capabilities, including Visa Direct, which makes it faster and easier for consumers to convert digital currency and push those funds to their Visa credentials in real-time. Much of this work is happening through Visa’s FastTrack program, which helps fintechs, including those in the digital currency space, integrate quickly with Visa’s global network.

Through these efforts, Visa has become the preferred network for digital currency wallets, which are eager to deepen their value to users by making it quicker and easier to spend digital currency worldwide.

We’ve been advancing and evolving our digital currency strategy for quite some time. Last year we made an investment in Anchorage, a company building security infrastructure for the digital currency ecosystem. Our research team has been exploring the science of blockchain technology for several years. Their work has yielded several promising innovations, including Zether2 and FlyClient.3 Today their research is focused on new mechanisms to improve scalability and enable offline digital currency transactions.

We know that policy leaders and regulators continue to have questions and concerns about digital currencies on a range of issues, from consumer protection to payments resilience. We believe the best way to address these concerns is by working closely with leading companies and the public sector. For more than 60 years, Visa has invested in building and maintaining a resilient global network that delivers best in class functionality to our clients and consumers. Extending this legacy into the decades ahead requires continuous innovation and collaboration with a range of partners.

As part of this public sector strategy, Visa has been engaging with policy makers and global organizations to help shape the dialogue and understanding of digital currencies; this includes our work with the World Economic Forum and our collaboration on a set of policy recommendations for central banks exploring the concept of Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC).

As our product and research teams continue to evolve our offering in this space, Visa’s digital currency strategy will reflect a set of key values:

  • Security, privacy, integrity and trust. We will maintain a rigorous focus on data protection, consumer privacy and fairness, and full compliance with all applicable laws.
  • Remaining currency- and network-agnostic: We plan to support the digital currencies and blockchain networks that our clients and partners demand, in keeping with our broader network-of-networks strategy.
  • Alignment with Visa’s core capabilities: We have deep expertise in securing transaction data, working with diverse stakeholders, and maintaining an always-on network with continuous availability. We will pursue projects that allow us to apply this expertise to new networks and technologies that can benefit our existing clients and partners.

We believe that digital currencies have the potential to extend the value of digital payments to a greater number of people and places. As such, we want to help shape and support the role they play in the future of money. We look forward to sharing more with you on this work in the months that follow.

有什麼方法可以幫助各國政府打擊犯罪、減少非法移民、促進賦稅公平,同時又能為金融危機作好準備?其實只要做一件事——淘汰現金紙鈔。

現金如果真的死了,金幣抑或是數字貨幣會是最終的保值者嗎?

2020年年度的最終的恒指回報為-3.3%, 投資組合回報53.0%,四年來的年化回報率為24.6%。