蒙格主義

蒙格的謙遜，表現在對「未知」的尊重與崇敬。雖然學貫東西，但他對於在自己能力圈以外的事，一向很勇敢地說：「我不懂。」蒙格小心翼翼畫出他的「能力圈」（circles of competence），他認為，每個人的能力圈不同，千萬不能以為自己無所不能、無所不通。如何弄清楚自己的能力圈？蒙格鼓勵博覽群書、獨立思考，弄清楚一些世界運作的基本概念，別依賴他人的想法，廣泛的常識，比專精的學術，更適合我們這個多變的世界，因此他的親筆著作，會以「普通常識」這個概念貫穿全書。他一生的偶像富蘭克林，用這套思想，建立了美國；蒙格則把這樣「不假會」的思惟，放到資本市場上，最後竟然與巴菲特建立了波克夏帝國。也是因為這樣完全坦白的思惟，今年年初，當他看錯中國、認賠殺出阿里巴巴持股時，老先生一點不留情地公開自責：「阿里巴巴，就是我犯過最大錯誤！」

蒙格小心翼翼畫出他的「能力圈」，把投資領域局限在「簡單而且可理解的備選項目」之內：關於投資，我們有三個選項: 可以投資；不能投資；太難理解。」

為什麼有些人會比其他人聰明? 這跟性格有部分關係。有些人的性格並不適合投資，他們總是按捺不住,要不就是憂心忡忡。但如果你有好的性格，有耐心、又能在該採取行動時主動出擊，那麼就能透過實踐和學習逐漸學會這種遊戲。顯然，你汲取教訓的來源越廣泛，而不是僅僅從自己的失敗中學習，就能變得越好。

蒙格的經驗驗證了一個長久以來的觀念:

只要做好準備, 在人生抓住幾個機會, 迅速採取適當的行動，去做簡單而合乎邏輯的事，這輩子就能到很大的財富。

但這種機會很少，通常屬於不斷尋找和等待、充滿求知欲望、而又熱中分析各種不同變數的人。

一旦機會來臨，如果勝算很高，那麼利用過去的謹慎和耐心得來的資源，重重押注下去就對了。

Charlie Munger, dead at 99 Wednesday, Nov 28, 2023

Wednesday, Nov 28

Charlie Munger, dead at 99

One of history's great investors, Charlie Munger, died on Tuesday in California just over a month shy of his 100th birthday. He served as Warren Buffett's right-hand man and Berkshire Hathaway's vice chairman for the last 45 years.

‌Buffett said Tuesday the company "could not have been built to its present status without Charlie’s inspiration, wisdom and participation."

Munger was perhaps known best for always having a quip at the ready during Berkshire's annual shareholder meetings where he would sit alongside Buffett and field questions for hours.

In this year's letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders, Buffett spent nearly two pages sharing Charlie's wisdom offered in an interview he'd given last year.

"You have to keep learning if you want to become a great investor," Munger said. "When the world changes, you must change." Munger, who began his career as a lawyer and ended it leading one of the country's largest conglomerates, lived this life lesson.

Munger's quotes have been collected in books and articles across the media landscape, most completely in "Poor Charlie's Almanack." And like any sage, Munger had just the right way to have the final word: "The best armor of old age is a well-spent life preceding it."

他是一個我很崇拜的人。

聰明 / 努力 / 專心

不造作 / 活出自己人生

數學 / 法律 / 心理學 /  普通常識

Nothing Beats Having a Great Partner 

Charlie and I think pretty much alike. But what it takes me a page to explain, he sums up in a sentence. His version, moreover, is always more clearly reasoned and also more artfully – some might add bluntly – stated. 

Here are a few of his thoughts, many lifted from a very recent podcast:

• The world is full of foolish gamblers, and they will not do as well as the patient investor. 

• If you don’t see the world the way it is, it’s like judging something through a distorted lens. 

• All I want to know is where I’m going to die, so I’ll never go there. And a related thought: Early on, write your desired obituary – and then behave accordingly. 

• If you don’t care whether you are rational or not, you won’t work on it. Then you will stay irrational and get lousy results. 

• Patience can be learned. Having a long attention span and the ability to concentrate on one thing for a long time is a huge advantage. 

• You can learn a lot from dead people. Read of the deceased you admire and detest. 

• Don’t bail away in a sinking boat if you can swim to one that is seaworthy. 

• A great company keeps working after you are not; a mediocre company won’t do that. 

• Warren and I don’t focus on the froth of the market. We seek out good long-term investments and stubbornly hold them for a long time. 

• Ben Graham said, “Day to day, the stock market is a voting machine; in the long term it’s a weighing machine.” If you keep making something more valuable, then some wise person is going to notice it and start buying. 

• There is no such thing as a 100% sure thing when investing. Thus, the use of leverage is dangerous. A string of wonderful numbers times zero will always equal zero. Don’t count on getting rich twice. 

• You don’t, however, need to own a lot of things in order to get rich. 

• You have to keep learning if you want to become a great investor. When the world changes, you must change. 

• Warren and I hated railroad stocks for decades, but the world changed and finally the country had four huge railroads of vital importance to the American economy. We were slow to recognize the change, but better late than never. 

• Finally, I will add two short sentences by Charlie that have been his decision-clinchers for decades: “Warren, think more about it. You’re smart and I’m right.” 

And so it goes. I never have a phone call with Charlie without learning something. And, while he makes me think, he also makes me laugh. 

************ 

I will add to Charlie’s list a rule of my own: Find a very smart high-grade partner – preferably slightly older than you – and then listen very carefully to what he says.

最大的BACKFIRE再次燃點

為免被情緒騎劫，看來短期的投資活動可能要減慢、避險。

讀後感:我如何思考基督教

11月議息會議美聯儲再次暫停加息，維持利率在5.25%-5.50%區間不變、繼續縮表計劃。

儘管美國經濟依然在增長，核心通脹有所反彈，指向更多加息（或更少降息次數）的必要性。美聯儲通過預期管理，配合長期利率保持高位，推動金融條件持續收緊來“代替”加息。

美聯儲尚未決定12月是否再次加息，但整體釋放鴿派信號。依然強調關注一籃子經濟數據的變化，包括近期通脹反彈後是否再次回落，勞動力市場供需再平衡，以及薪資增速的下行幅度。

化繁為簡:

失業率 (4.4%) VS 3.80%

通脹率 (2.0%) VS 3.67%

物質世界之外真的有一位神嗎?

憑著我們對宇宙和世界的認識，當中的奧妙和美麗，我想一般人一定起碼相信有種神秘的力量在當中，把這力量的源頭歸納到偶然實在也没有太大說服力，一般人是迷惑於這力量的源頭而已。有了這個基本的相通點，才有討論宗教的意義。

耶穌有什麼特別?

耶穌如果只是上帝，那麼祂的所作所為其實是太容易了; 耶穌如果只是人類，那麼祂的所作所為一定是騙子。可是經歷2000多年，歷史學家等的考究已起碼肯定了祂的經歷確實是真有其事。但祂經歷了完全的降服與羞辱，因為祂是上帝，所以完全；因為祂是人類，所以降服並受羞辱。這只是作一個示範，告訴基督徒如何可以透過謙卑而戰勝死亡，得到新生命。

基督教的道德觀在社會有用嗎?

世俗的道德是相對的，是有時效性的。基督的愛是郤會帶領大家繼續往前走，超越一切，不稱之為善，没有任何名稱，也没有刻意去想這個東西。理性的男人應該作為一家的頭，女人天生是家庭的捍衛者。

三一神是怎麼一回事?

神之所以是三一的目的，祂之所以成為三一，乃是為著將父對人一切的計畫，藉子的工作，靈的內住，實施在信徒裏，這是神為何成為三一的目的。這也是新約教訓的重點。

2800名共創明Teen學員今天畢業，自己作為友師，雖然因為個人的原因參與不太積極，但我覺得這和自己理想中的扶貧是吻合的，對於同學來說，一定比起正式的學校生活更有所裨益，至於明年是否要再重覆，那我就有些懷疑。有些東西，其實不太適合每年都做，邊際效益會急速下降，也容易變質。

東西二邊走，左右可逢源，騎牆好蝕底

美國聯邦儲備委員會結束為期兩天的貨幣政策會議，宣佈維持當前5.25%-5.50%的聯邦基金利率目標區間不變，自去年3月開啟本輪加息週期以來，連續第二次暫停加息。美聯儲主席鮑威爾在議息會議結束後的發佈會上表示，通脹仍遠高於目標水平，要將通脹率降低到2%還有很長的路要走；美聯儲目前並沒有考慮、也沒有討論過未來降息的問題，美聯儲的問題是，是否應該進一步加息。聯儲局的操作就如一部機器地跟隨著泰來定律。

失業率 (4.4%) VS 3.80%

通脹率 (2.0%) VS 3.67%

證監會、金融監管局表態吸引資金入市、打擊非法金融活動，推動股票發行註冊制走深走實，加強基礎制度和機制建設，加大投資端改革力度，吸引更多的中長期資金，活躍資本市場，更好發揮資本市場樞紐功能。全面強化“五大監管”，探索構建中國特色金融監管體系的“四梁八柱”，大力推進金融強國建設；堅決落實強監管嚴監管要求。堅決懲治重大違法違規行為。嚴厲打擊非法金融活動。國家的操作就如一個喜歡說教的父母，全面監管下的發展一定是區間游走，關係不佳。

擁抱樂觀，接受現實

高利率的確終於要衝擊不少公司的營運，大大提高企業再融資的難度及成本。偏偏美國官方經濟數據仍然強勁，息口見頂回落的時機一拖再拖，這種環境下，股市整體應該會偏弱一段較長時間。

筆者一向是樂觀派，認為衰退是好公司強化營運的契機，由於組合表現差劣，已選擇改變策略，收窄持倉範圍，以及提升現金比重。宏觀預期暫時不易改變，捱打空間又所剩無幾，即使相信經濟及股市有周期，亦無謂在下行初期強行和大市對抗，所以只會死守最好的核心選擇，再以短線操作保持市場感。將來當大市轉好，會較為容易察覺，到時都較不介意去追。

股份選擇方面，價值股及科技股相對上算較好。風險是在市場底部轉保守，尤其是加息期理應近尾聲，明年美國又大選。拯救股市效果可快可慢，跌得太快而一般投資者未有管理好風險，可以火燒連營需要急救，可是只要是有秩序向下，殺傷力就未必太大。中港股市便是最好例子，假如恒指由三萬點以上的高位，整個過程拉長到兩三年，仍然是重傷，不過就可以承受，對整體經濟以至一般人生活的影響相對有限。

港股大勢已經被去，巿民還是好好過日子，政府亦無意去救，更何況亦未必救得到。什麼股市升刺激消費好過直接派錢的言論根本多餘，唔買中港股票的百姓只會繼續唔買，買咗的話，現水平升五成都未見家鄉。經過多年牛市，美股好友實力雄厚，短期基本面有變，沿途力抗之下也只是有秩序向下調整。企業面對再融資煩惱，一樣未見有任何政策轉向的動靜。除非走勢變得失去秩序，我們不宜高估政府對資產市場的關注，不論東西方社會，都愈來愈左膠。作為股票投資者，還是應該腳踏實地，以個別公司自身質素為本，博少數股票跑得出，好過博救市令大市全面向上。

讀後感： 

當好改革開放的排頭兵-習近平上海足跡

習近平只是擔當了上海總書記七個月，但過了16年後，仍然要特別出版一本書記錄他的「事跡」，很明顯的是為了歌功頌德，把他的事蹟「神化」！要小心！

情緒調查與真實數據

群眾情緒調查普遍並不可靠。原因是調查向人們發問，然後假設其回答是準確及/或誠實；事實卻往往相反，因受訪者普遍不願說「不知道」。

情緒調查顯示人們的感知常與數據不符。例如美國通脹數字回落，但六成受訪者認為通脹「仍在上升」。

基金經理Barry Ritholtz經深入研究，透過哈佛大學Nieman媒體實驗室，取得一些數據，解釋這個現象。他提到，2010年代開始，媒體於網上的競爭愈趨激烈，「標題黨」吸引點擊成為主要導向。標題中強烈(負面)情感的語言大增：表達「厭惡」的詞語增加29%，「悲傷」則增54%；「憤怒」增104%；最大增長來自「恐懼」，大升150%。相反，表達「喜悅」或「中立」的詞語，則分別下降14%和30%。

此外，媒體選擇的主題、焦點，也可能令讀者對世界的理解偏離現實。以美國的死因為例，據Our World in Data數值，最可能致死的是心臟疾病(30.2%)、癌症(29.5%)、車禍或跌倒(7.6%)等。敬陪末座的是自殺(1.8%)、謀殺(0.9%)和恐襲(0.01%)。媒體報道則剛好倒轉：最不可能致命的事，得到最多報道，恐襲、謀殺和自殺佔最大篇幅；心臟病則最少。

Ritholtz指，他懷疑當負面標題、極度不成比例的報道結合，容易導致情緒調查結果與經濟環境，甚至現實世界不符。各地確實存在真正的問題；但我們想像的世界，與實況大相徑庭。這會構成不良影響，包括我們的投資。所以要不時留意自己吸收的內容，是否使我們感到不快，且愈發與現實脫節。

新聞鏈接：https://www.orangenews.hk/special/1196004/%E9%BB%83%E5%9C%8B%E8%8B%B1%E5%B0%88%E6%AC%84%E4%B8%A8%E6%84%8F%E8%A6%8B%E8%AA%BF%E6%9F%A5%E4%B8%A6%E4%B8%8D%E5%8F%AF%E9%9D%A0.shtml?fbclid=IwAR2961YMQ22ctQlarkXFpxM0Oi_YZrkMN6uKzsVoI66ZguZ2ZHGfQrwZF_s

新聞來源： 橙新聞

巿場的聲音(23-10-2023)

 巿場的聲音(23-10-2023)

匯率: 日元一年間由121升至151-->135-->142-->149兌1美元，歐元由0.82升至1.05-->-->0.89-->0.94兌1美元，人民幣由6.34升至7.33-->6.96---->7.30兌換1美元。澳元由1.31升至1.62 -->1.50-->1.58, 英鎊由0.71升至-->0.95-->0.79-->0.82兌1美元。BITCOIN由48199元一直下跌至13000-->241203, ETHE由4644元一直下跌至883-->1680。

債券: 二年美國國債由2.26%一直升至5.08-->3.56-->5.10%, 十年美元國債由2.31%一直升至4.34-->3.26-->4.88%, 三十年美元國債由2.41%一直升至-->5.02%, 十年英國國債由1.53%一直升至4.63-->3.81-->4.79%, 十年日本國債由0.16%一直升至0.55-->0.87%, 十年澳洲國債由2.76%一直升至4.23-->3.39-->4.74%

股巿: S&P由4818一直下跌至3492-->4607-->4235, 上證由3723一直下跌至2863-->3418-->2939, 恒指由31000一直下跌至14597-->22700-->17172。

能源: 油價由97.48元升至123.68元, 最近又輾轉跌回72.56-->87.11, 天然氣由6升至9.9, 最近又輾轉跌回2.5-->3.29。

農作物: WHEAT由980元升至1284元, 最近又輾轉跌回594, CORN由730元升至827元, 最近又輾轉跌回493, RICE由16.0元一直上升至18.3-->15.96-->16.46元，糖價由19元一直偏弱後反彈至17.2-->27.34元。

貴金屬: 金價一年間由1900跌回1618-->2015-->1989，銀價創新高，由24.5元一直跌至17.4-->23.25元, 銅價由4.6一直跌至3.14-->3.89-->3.58元。

巿場方向：恒指30天在18045-->17172, 標普30天由4356-->4241。英國通脹10.4-->6.7%，利率4.25-->5.25%。美國4.98-->4.93-->2.97-->3.67%, LT3.28%，失業率3.5-->3.4-->3.8%，利率4.83-->5.08 -->5.25%。

波動比例: 恒指成份股11/80在5天內有升幅, 18/80在20天內有升幅, 13/80在120天內有升幅.

港股依然行慢熊，較近期的救市措施預期，是國家隊可能擴大規模入市。其實極之無謂，很大機會落空。

假如出到高達萬億元人民幣在二手市場出手，只不過是提供較好深度及價錢讓一些原有投資者撤退，他們套現之後，預計永不回頭，徒令國有資金流失，上市公司半點好處也沒有，基本因素還是一模一樣。

以中國近年行事作風，不會如此藥石亂投，應該還是順其自然由得股市慢慢尋底。只要看看中國GDP和股市表現毫不相關，就知股票投資者自視過高，可惜情感勒索多年來都是大失敗。

讀後感 - F.I.A.S.C.O: The inside story of a Wall Street Trader

本書作者以自己的親身經歷，記錄了華爾街著名投資銀行摩根士丹利，是怎樣把一個耶魯法學院的高才生，培養成了一名商場上的「射擊手」。這些「射擊手」，坐著飛機頭等艙，出入豪華酒店，與世界各國的大公司交易著由世界頂級數學家`物理學家設計出來的金融產品。無數自以為非常成功的企業家和企業職業經理們，在只理解了華爾街出產的金融產品的一些皮毛後，就將幾十億美金送進了摩根士丹利的口袋。

在華爾街，如果有人說你是個好人，他的言外之意就是你是個笨蛋。對於大多數金融產品，買賣雙方的盈虧之和等於零，也就是說一方的利潤就是另一方的損失。本書作者所在的部門平均每人每年為公司賺飛500萬美元。書中提到的許多美國著名公司都是這些利潤背後的犧牲品。

中國的金融市場曾快速地與國際金融接軌，近年也快速地在脫軌。讀書時期對金融學的零和遊戲根本看不上眼，但我們大家又逃不過金融產品，所以我們仍應該提高對金融產品的風險認識，防止「專家們」利用我們對金融產品的無知來收「學費」。

昨天說過中央托巿的絕心很大。但如果決心很大，也做了很多功夫，但仍未能成功，那麼可能是方法不對，也可能是時不與我，需要檢討一下自己的根本原則是否和巿場背道而馳。

總是抱有不切實際的預期，註定一生痛苦。

充分認清客觀條件的限制，充分認識自身能力的限制，謹小慎微地在限制範圍內活動，這是賺錢的訣竅。這個訣竅，與其說是“ 謙卑”，不如說是“有剋制的貪婪”。謹小慎微地留在我們的“能力圈”之中。，我們的“ 能力圈”是一個非常小的圓圈。

中國人的問題是賭性太重，特別迷信運氣。迷信運氣的人很無知。不能信運氣，要信概率。

另，節錄英SIR的專欄文章如下：

港股反彈完再跌過，根本不應該感意外。內地面對的困局太大，急救的話，必然需要天文數字，所以大部分政策消息，都難以真正挽回人心，頂多成為挾淡倉的火藥引。隨着港股彈散走勢的經驗累積，大家都知道升市唯一動力是挾淡倉，又快又勁又如何，始終都會跌過。唯一致勝之道，似乎是守株待兔，挾高之後才沽空，又或者低位買博反彈，可是無論造好造淡，都要求相當精準的時機，獲利空間亦不大。而恒指作為港股門面，長期表現太差，居然重返九七年水平，實在欠缺說服力吸引人去長線投資。除非自命不凡兼且賭癮極深，否則遠離港股，是最正路的做法。由於長息高企，單靠盈利穩定並不足夠，一定要有增長空間，而且最好成交活躍兼且肯派息，降低持貨者的風險，能夠符合上述條件談何容易。

市場擔心以巴衝突升級，推高油價，加上個別公司業績觸發上周五美股板塊輪動，科技股成為套現對象。美國大型科技股長期形象健康，令人有信心假以時日「升得番」，支持力會比較強。重點始終是審視本身的信念，長息高企已成定局，企業必然要有增長概念，才可以克服估值損耗，而市場亦不傾向太過冒險，對於發夢股興趣不大。所以巨型科技股違反傳統觀念，在目前環境反而受到追捧。單日走勢逆轉，純粹藉消息調整，沒有必要動搖。其實組合配置加入大型銀行股及石油股互補，就可以解決大部分人的煩惱，不需要隨波逐流。

近一兩年香港部分投資者中了東升西「降」，長期以為美股就快死，港股即將翻生。客觀一點，不用太複雜，只要從形象出發，美股「升得番」對比港股「會跌過」，就知道包拗頸相當無謂。物極必反，只是一廂情願的想法，兩者形象上的分野，是源於企業價值創造能力的高低，是合理賽果，長途賽根本無得呃，絕對不是投資者偏見所做成。

「中央托巿」的「回購指數」

中央托巿的手段無所不用其極，指數托上去有難度，就推另一些指數來監察大家有否跟從聖旨，手法和早幾年的「房住不炒」下的「三條紅線」差無幾，總之為求達到手段，又怕大家隨意演譯，就開設一些大家都明白的SUB KPI來追蹤「托巿」這個主要KPI的成效。根據上交所、中證指數有限公司此前的安排，上證回購指數、中證回購指數、中證回購價值策略指數、中證回購質量策略指數等4條回購指數將於2023年10月17日正式發佈。

1：「做得正確或是投資成功的必要條件，但卻並不足夠。你必須比他人更正確...意味你的想法要與別不同。」- 橡樹資本霍華·馬克斯(Howard Marks)

Ritholtz認為，即使能預知未來1年的GDP、非農就業數據，也未必有助交易。他以Jane Street Trading為例：2016年美國總統大選，他們準確算出所有州份的選舉結果，比主要電視頻道，更要早好幾分鐘。他們趕在別人之前交易，沽空期貨一夜暴賺3億美元。然而，當市場充分思考選舉結果，預測之後的減稅、和刺激政策，走勢快速逆轉，他們也瞬間由大勝變大敗，虧損為該公司史上最大。

霍華·馬克斯強調第二層思考，不只停留於顯而易見的第一層思考。僅僅弄清發生了甚麼並不足夠；市場像是滿佈鏡子的大廳，每一新訊息，都會引發連串難以預測的反射性、行動和反應。為此作好準備，才有望獲取財富。

2：「要對未來作出更好、更明智的決策，我們建議人們『擁有强烈的觀點，而不盲目堅持』(strong opinions, which are weakly held)。」- 帕羅奧圖未來研究所Bob Johansen

Ritholtz解釋，投資是概率的遊戲，我們必須在不完美訊息下，對未知的未來作決策。因此，無論對經濟、市場、投資組合有何觀點，都得在累積證據表明其為錯誤時，果斷放棄。「强觀點，弱堅持」，意味有能力快速止損、必要時改變原觀點，並永不執著於單一持倉。

戰事連連 : 以巴戰爭聯想

俄烏戰事没完没了，中美一場没有硝煙的對峙僵持不下，那邊廂非洲蘇丹、尼日爾、俄塞俄比亞的內戰更接近種族滅絶。人性的醜陋與兇殘並没有日漸磨滅，世界的和平好像比移民火星更遙不可及。大國的角力，小國的求存；政治的鬥爭，人民的逃亡；一片的混沌，深奧的簡潔。

其一，系統狀態對初始條件敏感; 其二，系統具有反饋機制。

個人感覺這周期的初始條件是美國在2003年伊拉克出兵失利，20年過去，檢討結果是失敗的無理據的，反美的聲音變得越來越有理據，美國在美元霸權底下在偶像伯南克的領導下竟然可以安然渡過2008年的金融危機，變得更強，反美的力量據理力爭，造成越發明顯的大國衝突。特朗普以純商業角度權衡利益下選擇在中東退兵，企圖操控聯儲局把美國這盤數經營得更好。以為拜登是一個弱角色，豈料在大局已定下勢成騎虎，他竟變得更特朗普，更功利，充份發揮好美元霸權的優勢。這個反饋機制在大變局難以在平靜中發生，接二連三的戰爭或許會迫使美國再次宣佈出地面軍隊下而啟動。

美國就業數據強勁，美股先跌後升，表面上薪酬增長放緩有幫助，可是上周五下半場債券反彈後輾轉回落，股票卻見頂到尾。這種股債表現分途的現象，反映投資者口味上的轉變，估計會愈來愈明顯，債市應該會持續受壓，卻未必再拖累股市整體表現。

今次債市暴跌，並非經濟數據主導，而是市場重新思考美國國債風險溢價的水平。西方教育洗腦無孔不入，在經濟學課堂上，美國國債孳息率一向被定義為無風險利率，暗示極之安全。近期市場正正反映這個宗教受到質疑，債券短期價格固然波動，被迫套現隨時輸死；即使長揸，十年八載之後，是否可以收回本金，也不是百分百肯定。最重要是一年只有大約5厘回報，感覺不差，其實不夠買驚風散。支持美債的最大信念，是一旦出事全世界攬炒而已，根本建基在浮沙之上。

美債跌勢失控，市場信心就愈低，似乎正在形成一個惡性循環。傳統想法有危就有機，聯儲局隻手可以遮天，情況太差，屆時便會出手營救。可是美國長債賣點從來都只是低風險，萬一這個認知逆轉，未必可以回頭。所以現時投資第一戒條，應該是秤低所有長期債券，食少多覺瞓，寧願簡單做定期，到期後再投資的風險到時再算。買長債以為鎖定長期回報，恐怕只會引來他日連場噩夢。

孳息率上升已成定局，當然會對股票估值有影響，今次美股出奇堅韌，甚至開始和美債走勢脫鈎，主要是多得幾隻科技巨企力挽狂瀾。與債券不同，股票的賣點是高回報，既然買債券已經由低風險逐漸變成高風險，同樣高風險的股票，反而因為潛在回報夠高，依然可以有足夠吸引力，而且控制風險的方法很簡單，就是縮減注碼。現時最正路的資產配置，是把大部分放在短期債券或定存，另外小部分買股票去博。並非所有股票都仍然有吸引力，重點一定要提供增長，否則便無法克服孳息率上升對估值的損耗。最明顯的例子就是香港收租股，租金收入前景向淡，任何反彈都是趁機認輸斬纜的機會。

市場主力巨型科技股，固然是人工智能提供長遠願景，加上交投極其暢旺，隨時可以撤退，所以成為全世界的鐵膽，縱使人多擠迫，情況看來只會持續，基本面上的確有盈利增長空間。反正也是打九零一，股票組合用注碼控制風險，不妨博目前特殊狀況下，可以引發一個細範圍的股市泡沫。

巨型科技股之外，銀行股會是另一個有趣的類別。債券變得高風險之後，意味以往借貸過程去中介化的趨勢終於逆轉，有錢人寧願擺定存，總好過亂買債券。而銀行評估風險的能力，以及分散客戶的做法，價值都得以提升；加上借貸風險溢價普遍向上，存戶又認命接受合理的存款利率，息差頗大機會改善，只要不是以往太過依賴銷售金融產品的銀行，相信也會跑贏大市。

讀後感 - Deep Simplicity

雖說是一本科普書，但讀起來相當有難度，細味下有不少收穫。

1. 儘管有現代科技的幫助，我們的生活仍必須提防突如其來的意外事件：氣象預測既是科學也是藝術; 地震與火山爆發隨機發生，難以預料; 股市震蕩也沒有固定的模式。

2. 每一代中，總有些青蛙的舌頭比較黏，有些蒼蠅的身體比較滑溜，因此這一點一滴地代代傳遞下去，青蛙舌頭更黏且蒼蠅身體更滑溜的趨勢將持續發展。 這種青蛙更會捉蒼蠅（不論用什麼方法），蒼蠅也更擅於脫逃的狀況，永無止境。 雙方都必須拚命往前跑，才能停在原地。

3. 結合了混沌與複雜，宇宙成為極有秩序的地方，正適合像我們這樣的生命形態存在。  然而，宇宙並非是為人類利益而設計的，因為我們就是宇宙本身面貌的一部分。我們作為宇宙本身面貌的一部分，正在試圖了解我們整個的宇宙。

4. 書中提及的混沌系統理論，為我們提供了認知複雜世界的新工具。 作者在序言中說到，一個混沌系統需要滿足兩個條件：其一，系統狀態對初始條件敏感; 其二，系統具有反饋機制。 總體來說，《深奧的簡潔》是一本不錯的讀物，向讀者揭示了一些複雜現象背後共有的簡單邏輯。

巿場的聲音(3-10-2023)

匯率: 日元一年間由121升至151-->135-->142-->149兌1美元，歐元由0.93升至1.05-->-->0.89-->0.91-->1.05兌1美元，人民幣由6.34升至7.33-->6.96-->7.13-->7.18-->7.30兌換1美元。澳元由1.31升至1.62 -->1.50-->1.52-->1.57, 英鎊由0.76升至-->0.95-->0.80-->0.79-->0.83兌1美元。BITCOIN由48199元一直下跌至15504-->30159-->29145-->27536, ETHE由3579元一直下跌至883-->1844-->1910-->1833-->1666。

債券: 二年美國國債由2.26%一直升至5.08-->3.99-->4.59-->4.90-->5.11%, 十年美元國債由2.31%一直升至4.34-->3.79-->4.17-->4.68%, 三十年美元國債由2.41%一直升至4.43-->3.94-->4.28-->4.79%, 十年英國國債由1.53%一直升至4.63-->3.81-->4.29-->4.50-->4.46%, 十年日本國債由0.16%一直升至0.55-->0.39-->0.63-->0.76%, 十年澳洲國債由2.76%一直升至4.23-->3.39-->3.96-->4.15-->4.58%

股巿: S&P由4637一直下跌至3492-->4124-->4270-->4501-->4288, 上證由3600一直下跌至2863-->3272-->3209-->3289-->3110, 恒指由28000一直下跌至14836-->19627-->19413-->19597-->17261。

能源: 油價由97.48元升至123.68元, 最近又輾轉跌回72.56-->81.8-->89.75, 天然氣由6升至9.9, 最近又輾轉跌回2.5-->2.56-->2.83。

農作物: WHEAT由980元升至1284元, 最近又輾轉跌回635-->615-->660-->633-->563, CORN由730元升至827元, 最近又輾轉跌回583-->607-->510-->495-->485, RICE由16.0元一直上升至18.0-->18.3-->15.96-->15.91元，糖價由19元一直偏弱後反彈至17.2-->24.5-->24.0-->26.35元。

貴金屬: 金價一年間由1900跌回1618-->2015-->1957-->1970-->1838，銀價創新高，由24.5元一直跌至17.4-->24.13-->23.54-->23.62-->21.03元, 銅價由4.6一直跌至3.14-->3.73-->3.75-->3.89-->3.61元。

巿場方向：恒指30天在18944-->17265, 標普30天由4519-->4288。英國通脹10.4-->10.1-->8.7 -->7.9-->6.7%，利率4.25-->4.5-->5.25%--。美國4.98-->4.93-->2.97-->3.67%, LT3.28%，失業率3.5-->3.4-->3.7-->3.6-->3.8%，利率4.83-->5.08 -->5.33%--。

波動比例: 恒指成份股16/80在5天內有升幅, 16/80在20天內有升幅, 13/80在120天內有升幅.

港股陰乾急反彈的走勢特色逐漸成為常態。恒指回升的唯一動力只是挾淡倉，所以升勢通常維持不到3個交易日，就會回復慢慢跌。唔想追貨，造淡又怕繼續挾，䄂手旁觀最正路，人同此心成交更低。不聞不問，一味死守退休三寶就算，依然很可能是最簡單而又有效應對港股的策略。如果認定港股繼續是爛泥，想把握機會造淡，挑選個別板塊會比較合適，科網股巨頭表面估值太低，萬一再挾，仍然可以有頗多空間。相對之下，本地地產股似乎正在炒撤辣預期最值得攻擊，政府保守，傾向維護首次置業者；其次是即使成事，措施亦只是長遠有利，短期幫助極之有限。地產股的核心價值，在資金流轉速度變慢兼且收租前景都不被看好的情況下，基本走勢呈現向下。

美股方面，短線下跌動力終於減弱，可是債券仍未脫險，不能輕言會回復長期慢牛的走勢。板塊輪動依然是主題，科技股周五在通脹數據後好轉，輪到石油股及銀行股回落。暫時很難判斷市場對於宏觀經濟走向預期的最後定案，似乎較大機會是通脹接近見頂，但高息會維持較長時間終於引致衰退，而油價強勢不外乎供應問題，不能套用在其他商品之上。如此這般的話，就會以科技股表現最好，尤其是今次加上了人工智能概念。

維持一個平衡組合，同時包含科技、石油及銀行三大類別會比較好，以免過度敏感。其實只是最新一組數據觸發這一輪強弱互易，隨時又逆轉，不過就不妨跟風，將主力重新稍為側重於科技股之上，始終長遠潛力較佳，債息上升引起的拋售亦應該差不多。

巿場的聲音(4-8-2023)

匯率: 日元一年間由121升至151-->135-->142兌1美元，歐元由0.93升至1.05-->-->0.89-->0.91兌1美元，人民幣由6.34升至7.33-->6.96-->7.13-->7.18兌換1美元。澳元由1.31升至1.62 -->1.50-->1.52, 英鎊由0.76升至-->0.95-->0.80-->0.79兌1美元。BITCOIN由48199元一直下跌至15504-->30159-->29145, ETHE由3579元一直下跌至883-->1844-->1910-->1833。

債券: 二年美國國債由2.26%一直升至5.08-->3.99-->4.59-->4.90%, 十年美元國債由2.31%一直升至4.34-->3.79-->4.17%, 三十年美元國債由2.41%一直升至4.43-->3.94-->4.28%, 十年英國國債由1.53%一直升至4.63-->3.81-->4.29-->4.50%, 十年日本國債由0.16%一直升至0.55-->0.39-->0.63%, 十年澳洲國債由2.76%一直升至4.23-->3.39-->3.96-->4.15%

股巿: S&P由4637一直下跌至3492-->4124-->4270-->4501, 上證由3600一直下跌至2863-->3272-->3209-->3289, 恒指由28000一直下跌至14836-->19627-->19413-->19597。

能源: 油價由97.48元升至123.68元, 最近又輾轉跌回72.56-->81.8, 天然氣由6升至9.9, 最近又輾轉跌回2.5-->2.56。

農作物: WHEAT由980元升至1284元, 最近又輾轉跌回635-->615-->660-->633, CORN由730元升至827元, 最近又輾轉跌回583-->607-->510-->495, RICE由16.0元一直上升至18.0-->18.3-->15.96元，糖價由19元一直偏弱後反彈至17.2-->24.5-->24.0元。

貴金屬: 金價一年間由1900跌回1618-->2015-->1957-->1970，銀價創新高，由24.5元一直跌至17.4-->24.13-->23.54-->23.62.0元, 銅價由4.6一直跌至3.14-->3.73-->3.75-->3.89元。

巿場方向：恒指5天在20352-->19606, M5, 19726，M20, 19237.  標普5天由4567-->4501， M5,4552,  M20, 4521。英國通脹10.4-->10.1-->8.7 -->7.9%，利率4.25-->4.5-->5.25%。美國4.98-->4.93-->2.97%, LT3.28%，失業率3.5-->3.4-->3.7-->3.6%，利率4.83-->5.08 -->5.33%。

波動比例: 恒指成份股16/80在5天內有升幅, 40/80在30天內有升幅, 24/80在90天內有升幅.

Nobel Prize-winning economist and former Federal Reserve chair Ben Bernanke will lead a review into the Bank of England’s forecasting processes, to review the Bank’s recent economic predictions, which have had a poor track record.

Bernanke will lead a review into the Bank’s “forecasting and related processes during times of significant uncertainty”. It will look at “the role of the forecast”  and how this should inform the Monetary Policy  Committee’s decisions to raise or lower interest rates.

It comes as the Bank has come under fire for its projections of the cost-of-living crisis, which Threadneedle Street’s top economists expected to ease much more quickly than it has. At the same time, the Bank initially projected a deep recession this year, but since revised these to now expect no rcession this year at all.

Bernake is one of the world’s most  famous economists. He served as chairman of the US Federal Reserve during the global financial crisis, making him one of the most significant figures in the global economy during the period.

His record as Fed chair divides experts, with some believing he avoided turning a recession into the next Great Depression, while others argue he failed to stimulate the economy enough after the initial crash, leading to a prolonged slowdown.

上星期的杜蘇芮在香港繞過吹襲中國大陸，強降雨引起大水災，連千年不發水浸影響的北京也受影響，雖然災情嚴重，涿洲更被犠牲了，但整個國家好像少了以前的救災情緒，令人擔心。

巿場的聲音 17-7-2023

 匯率: 日元一年間由121升至151-->135-->140-->138兌1美元，歐元由0.93升至1.05-->0.91--> 0.93-->0.89兌1美元，人民幣由6.34升至7.33-->6.96-->7.13-->7.17兌換1美元。澳元由1.31升至1.62 -->1.50-->1.50-->1.47, 英鎊由0.76升至-->0.95-->0.80-->0.80-->0.76兌1美元。BITCOIN由48199元一直下跌至15504-->26428-->30159, ETHE由3579元一直下跌至883-->1844-->1910。

債券: 二年美國國債由2.26%一直升至5.08-->3.99-->4.59-->4.72%, 十年美元國債由2.31%一直升至4.34-->3.79-->3.78%, 三十年美元國債由2.41%一直升至4.43-->3.94-->3.89%, 十年英國國債由1.53%一直升至4.63-->3.81-->4.29-->4.43%, 十年日本國債由0.16%一直升至0.55-->0.39-->0.43-->0.47%, 十年澳洲國債由2.76%一直升至4.23-->3.39-->3.96-->3.95%

股巿: S&P由4637一直下跌至3492-->4124-->4270-->4505, 上證由3600一直下跌至2863-->3272-->3197-->3209, 恒指由28000一直下跌至14836-->19627-->19252-->19413。

能源: 油價由97.48元升至123.68元, 最近又輾轉跌回72.56-->74.8, 天然氣由6升至9.9, 最近又輾轉跌回2.3-->2.5。

農作物: WHEAT由980元升至1284元, 最近又輾轉跌回635-->615-->660, CORN由730元升至827元, 最近又輾轉跌回583-->607-->510, RICE由16.0元一直上升至18.0-->18.3-->15.35元，糖價由19元一直偏弱後反彈至17.2-->24.5-->23.7元。

貴金屬: 金價一年間由1900跌回1618-->2015-->1957-->1955，銀價創新高，由24.5元一直跌至17.4-->24.13-->23.54-->25.0元, 銅價由4.6一直跌至3.14-->3.73-->3.75-->3.82元。

巿場方向：恒指5天在18719-->19317, M5, 19413，M20, 19332.  標普5天由4420-->4511， M5,4508,  M20, 4500。英國通脹10.4-->10.1-->8.7 -->8.7%，利率4.25-->4.5-->5.0%。美國4.98-->4.93-->2.97%, LT3.28%，失業率3.5-->3.4-->3.7-->3.6%，利率4.83-->5.08 -->5.25%。

波動比例: 恒指成份股76/80在5天內有升幅, 47/80在10天內有升幅, 21/80在120天內有升幅.

個股方面: 

巿場的聲音 8-6-2023

匯率: 日元一年間由121升至151-->135-->140兌1美元，歐元由0.93升至1.05-->0.91--> 0.93兌1美元，人民幣由6.34升至7.33-->6.96-->7.13兌換1美元。澳元由1.31升至1.62 -->1.50-->1.50, 英鎊由0.76升至-->0.95-->0.80-->0.80兌1美元。BITCOIN由48199元一直下跌至15504-->26428, ETHE由3579元一直下跌至883-->1844。

債券: 二年美國國債由2.26%一直升至5.08-->3.99-->4.59%, 十年美元國債由2.31%一直升至4.34-->3.79%, 三十年美元國債由2.41%一直升至4.43-->3.94%, 十年英國國債由1.53%一直升至4.63-->3.81-->4.29%, 十年日本國債由0.16%一直升至0.55-->0.39-->0.43%, 十年澳洲國債由2.76%一直升至4.23-->3.39-->3.96%

股巿: S&P由4637一直下跌至3492-->4124-->4270, 上證由3600一直下跌至2863-->3272-->3197, 恒指由28000一直下跌至14836-->19627-->19252。

能源: 油價由97.48元升至123.68元, 最近又輾轉跌回72.56, 天然氣由6升至9.9, 最近又輾轉跌回2.3。

農作物: WHEAT由980元升至1284元, 最近又輾轉跌回635-->615, CORN由730元升至827元, 最近又輾轉跌回583-->607, RICE由16.0元一直上升至18.0-->18.3元，糖價由19元一直偏弱後反彈至17.2-->24.5元。

貴金屬: 金價一年間由1900跌回1618-->2015-->1957，銀價創新高，由24.5元一直跌至17.4-->24.13-->23.54元, 銅價由4.6一直跌至3.14-->3.73-->3.75元。

巿場方向：恒指5天在19627-->19252, M5, 18925，M10, 18787, M20, 19240.  標普5天由4124-->4271， M5,4266,  M10,4218,  M20, 4186。英國通脹10.4-->10.1-->8.7%，利率4.25-->4.5%。美國4.98-->4.93%, LT3.28%，失業率3.5-->3.4-->3.7，利率4.83-->5.08%。

波動比例: 恒指成份股76/80在5天內有升幅, 35/80在10天內有升幅, 16/80在120天內有升幅.

個股方面: 中港股巿本來在中特估的帶動下表現不錯, 甚至有突破阻力的跡象, 但耐何中加突然互相驅逐大使, 本來上升的軌跡即又消失。聯儲局確認財長耶倫預示加息的步伐應該會放慢，但聯儲局在通脹未下降到2%前，高利率似仍會維持一段長時間，利率巿場可以自由決定指數的走勢演譯。

巿場的聲音-20230514

匯率: 日元一年間由121升至151-->135兌1美元，歐元由0.93升至1.05-->0.91兌1美元，人民幣由6.34升至7.33-->6.96兌換1美元。澳元由1.31升至1.62 -->1.50, 英鎊由0.76升至-->0.95-->0.80兌1美元。BITCOIN由48199元一直下跌至15504-->26861, ETHE由3579元一直下跌至883-->1804。

債券: 二年美國國債由2.26%一直升至5.08-->3.99%, 十年美元國債由2.31%一直升至4.34-->3.46%, 三十年美元國債由2.41%一直升至4.43-->3.78%, 十年英國國債由1.53%一直升至4.63-->3.81%, 十年日本國債由0.16%一直升至0.55-->0.39%, 十年澳洲國債由2.76%一直升至4.23-->3.39%

股巿: S&P由4637一直下跌至3492-->4124, 上證由3600一直下跌至2863-->3272, 恒指由28000一直下跌至14836-->19627。

能源: 油價由97.48元升至123.68元, 最近又輾轉跌回70.00, 天然氣由6升至9.9, 最近又輾轉跌回2.3。

農作物: WHEAT由980元升至1284元, 最近又輾轉跌回635, CORN由730元升至827元, 最近又輾轉跌回583, RICE由16.0元一直上升至18.0-->18.5元，糖價由19元一直偏弱後反彈至17.2-->26.3元。

貴金屬: 金價一年間由1900跌回1618-->2015，銀價創新高，由24.5元一直跌至17.4-->24.13元, 銅價由4.6一直跌至3.14-->3.73元。

巿場方向：恒指5天在20100-->19627, M5, 19859，M20, 20035, M30, 20118.  標普5天由4140-->4124， M5,4129,  M20,4125,  M30, 4121。英國通脹10.4-->10.1%，利率4.25-->4.5%。美國4.98-->4.93%, LT3.28%，失業率3.5-->3.4，利率4.83-->5.08%。

波動比例: 恒指成份股16/76在5天內有升幅, 24/76在10天內有升幅, 55/76在120天內有升幅. 美股255/679在5天內有升幅, 263/679在10天內有升幅, 319/679在120天內有升幅

個股方面: 中港股巿本來在中特估的帶動下表現不錯, 甚至有突破阻力的跡象, 但耐何中加突然互相驅逐大使, 本來上升的軌跡即又消失。聯儲局確認財長耶倫預示加息的步伐應該會放慢，但聯儲局在通脹未下降到2%前，高利率似仍會維持一段長時間，利率巿場可以自由決定指數的走勢演譯。

佈局策略：巴郡年會和中特估

10 Important lessons from the 2023 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting

1.      1.Banking system: FDIC is essential, and bank should not do investment bank, punish ECO who make wrong decisions

2.      2. Commercial real estate:　Hollowing at downtown will be a problem when people cannot survive at high rate

3.       3. The AI hype: AI can do  a lot of things, but no human think and behave , we cannot uninvent AI

4.       4. Elon’s extreme goal: he is brilliant guy with extreme objectives. Fanaticism dedication dissolving impossible

5.      5.  The reserve currency: Jay Powell understands the monetary policy bets, printing money to buy board will be counterproductive.

6.       6. Others’ mistakes create opportunities: tech doesn’t make the change or create opportunities, opportunities occurs when other people doing dumb things (raise money easily now)

7.       7. How to avoid mistakes? Spend less than you earn. Be kind and avoid toxic people and activities. Need to know how people manipulate others, and you need to resist the temptation to do it yourself. Do it fast to get away from toxic people.

8.       8. Your defence in recession: purchasing power, invest yourself and find your value in community.

9.       9. Federal tax: 15% corporation tax is reasonable from 52%.

10. Capitalism: automatically creates GDP per capital. Best system though it is not perfect.  

中特估方面，源自於陸證監會主席易會滿去年底提到的「探索建立具有中國特色的估值體系」，該概念被用於央企、國企及部分有行業特殊背景的上市公司。大陸3月「全國兩會」上，政府工作報告指出要改革國企提高競爭力，並宣布組建中央科技委員會，相關動作反映出大陸在科技與行業發展上，都將相當程度仰賴舉國體制。隨後股市自3月下旬開始颳起「中特估」旋風，多檔央國企主題ETF漲幅居市場前列，大陸電信三雄、中國人壽、中科曙光等「中字輩」標的走揚；中國移動更在18日股價創人民幣106元高點，從3月底低點強漲25％，當前總市值能與股王茅台互爭高下。

看了電信三雄的業績報告，實在看不出這輪升巿的端倪，也看不出他們在ROE的表現如何可以做到更好，畢意不同的考量指標落在他們的利潤率方面，國企的利潤率低企除了是管治方面不及國際對手外，第二便是價格是受到中央控制的，管治方面政付難以幫忙, 但放寛價格控制郤是政府的舉手之勞。眼看中國的通脹率仍是1%，GDP的增長率有約5%，降息刺激經濟的方法仍是甚多, 跟著炒，但要小心隨時落車或許就是機會所在。

巿場的聲音-20230509

 匯率: 日元持續弱，一年間由121升至151-->131-->135兌1美元，歐元亦很弱，由0.93升至1.05-->0.93-->0.91兌1美元，人民幣由6.34升至7.33-->6.91兌換1美元。澳元亦弱，一年間由1.31升至1.62 -->1.48, 英鎊一年間由0.76升至-->0.95-->0.79兌1美元。BITCOIN由48199元一直下跌至15504-->27670, ETHE由3579元一直下跌至883-->1848。

債券: 二年美國國債由2.26%一直升至5.08-->3.99%, 十年美元國債由2.31%一直升至4.34-->3.51%, 三十年美元國債由2.41%一直升至4.43-->3.83%, 十年英國國債由1.53%一直升至4.63-->3.80%, 十年日本國債由0.16%一直升至0.55-->0.41%, 十年澳洲國債由2.76%一直升至4.23-->3.48%

股巿: S&P由4637一直下跌至3492-->4137, 上證由3251一直下跌至2863-->3395, 恒指由22000一直下跌至14836-->20297。

能源: 油價由97.48元升至123.68元, 最近又輾轉跌回72.99, 天然氣由6升至9.9, 最近又輾轉跌回2.2。

農作物: WHEAT由980元升至1284元, 最近又輾轉跌回653, CORN由730元升至827元, 最近又輾轉跌回596, RICE由16.0元一直上升至18.0-->18.3元，糖價由19元一直偏弱後反彈至17.2-->26.1元。

貴金屬: 金價一年間由1900跌回1618-->2028，銀價創新高，由24.5元一直跌至17.4-->25.79元, 銅價開始反彈由4.6一直跌至3.14-->3.92元。

巿場方向：恒指5天在19500-->20300, M5, 19985，M20, 20159, M30, 20122.  標普5天由4050-->4150， M5,4109,  M20,4124,  M30, 4105。英國通脹10.4-->10.1%，利率4.25%。美國4.98%, LT3.28%，失業率3.5-->3.4，利率4.83-->5.08%。

波動比例: 恒指成份股似在築底反彈。

個股方面: 中港股巿仍然在波動，整體上升的軌跡逐漸確認。聯儲局確認財長耶倫預示加息的步伐應該會放慢，但聯儲局在通脹未下降到2%前，高利率似仍會維持一段長時間，利率巿場可以決定指數的走勢演譯。

佈局策略：巴菲特的巴郡年報

To the Shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.: 

Charlie Munger, my long-time partner, and I have the job of managing the savings of a great number of individuals. We are grateful for their enduring trust, a relationship that often spans much of their adult lifetime. It is those dedicated savers that are forefront in my mind as I write this letter. 

A common belief is that people choose to save when young, expecting thereby to maintain their living standards after retirement. Any assets that remain at death, this theory says, will usually be left to their families or, possibly, to friends and philanthropy. 

Our experience has differed. We believe Berkshire’s individual holders largely to be of the once-a-saver, always-a-saver variety. Though these people live well, they eventually dispense most of their funds to philanthropic organizations. These, in turn, redistribute the funds by expenditures intended to improve the lives of a great many people who are unrelated to the original benefactor. Sometimes, the results have been spectacular. 

The disposition of money unmasks humans. Charlie and I watch with pleasure the vast flow of Berkshire-generated funds to public needs and, alongside, the infrequency with which our shareholders opt for look-at-me assets and dynasty-building. 

Who wouldn’t enjoy working for shareholders like ours?

What We Do 

Charlie and I allocate your savings at Berkshire between two related forms of ownership. First, we invest in businesses that we control, usually buying 100% of each. Berkshire directs capital allocation at these subsidiaries and selects the CEOs who make day-by-day operating decisions. When large enterprises are being managed, both trust and rules are essential. Berkshire emphasizes the former to an unusual – some would say extreme – degree. Disappointments are inevitable. We are understanding about business mistakes; our tolerance for personal misconduct is zero. 

In our second category of ownership, we buy publicly-traded stocks through which we passively own pieces of businesses. Holding these investments, we have no say in management. 

Our goal in both forms of ownership is to make meaningful investments in businesses with both long-lasting favorable economic characteristics and trustworthy managers. Please note particularly that we own publicly-traded stocks based on our expectations about their long-term business performance, not because we view them as vehicles for adroit purchases and sales. That point is crucial: Charlie and I are not stock-pickers; we are business-pickers. 

Over the years, I have made many mistakes. Consequently, our extensive collection of businesses currently consists of a few enterprises that have truly extraordinary economics, many that enjoy very good economic characteristics, and a large group that are marginal. Along the way, other businesses in which I have invested have died, their products unwanted by the public. Capitalism has two sides: The system creates an ever-growing pile of losers while concurrently delivering a gusher of improved goods and services. Schumpeter called this phenomenon “creative destruction.” 

One advantage of our publicly-traded segment is that – episodically – it becomes easy to buy pieces of wonderful businesses at wonderful prices. It’s crucial to understand that stocks often trade at truly foolish prices, both high and low. “Efficient” markets exist only in textbooks. In truth, marketable stocks and bonds are baffling, their behavior usually understandable only in retrospect. 

Controlled businesses are a different breed. They sometimes command ridiculously higher prices than justified but are almost never available at bargain valuations. Unless under duress, the owner of a controlled business gives no thought to selling at a panic-type valuation.

************ 

At this point, a report card from me is appropriate: In 58 years of Berkshire management, most of my capital-allocation decisions have been no better than so-so. In some cases, also, bad moves by me have been rescued by very large doses of luck. (Remember our escapes from near-disasters at USAir and Salomon? I certainly do.) 

Our satisfactory results have been the product of about a dozen truly good decisions – that would be about one every five years – and a sometimes-forgotten advantage that favors long-term investors such as Berkshire. Let’s take a peek behind the curtain.

The Secret Sauce 

In August 1994 – yes, 1994 – Berkshire completed its seven-year purchase of the 400 million shares of Coca-Cola we now own. The total cost was $1.3 billion – then a very meaningful sum at Berkshire. 

The cash dividend we received from Coke in 1994 was $75 million. By 2022, the dividend had increased to $704 million. Growth occurred every year, just as certain as birthdays. All Charlie and I were required to do was cash Coke’s quarterly dividend checks. We expect that those checks are highly likely to grow. 

American Express is much the same story. Berkshire’s purchases of Amex were essentially completed in 1995 and, coincidentally, also cost $1.3 billion. Annual dividends received from this investment have grown from $41 million to $302 million. Those checks, too, seem highly likely to increase. These dividend gains, though pleasing, are far from spectacular. But they bring with them important gains in stock prices. At yearend, our Coke investment was valued at $25 billion while Amex was recorded at $22 billion. Each holding now accounts for roughly 5% of Berkshire’s net worth, akin to its weighting long ago. 

Assume, for a moment, I had made a similarly-sized investment mistake in the 1990s, one that flat-lined and simply retained its $1.3 billion value in 2022. (An example would be a high-grade 30-year bond.) That disappointing investment would now represent an insignificant 0.3% of Berkshire’s net worth and would be delivering to us an unchanged $80 million or so of annual income. 

The lesson for investors: The weeds wither away in significance as the flowers bloom. Over time, it takes just a few winners to work wonders. And, yes, it helps to start early and live into your 90s as well.

The Past Year in Brief 

Berkshire had a good year in 2022. The company’s operating earnings – our term for income calculated using Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (“GAAP”), exclusive of capital gains or losses from equity holdings – set a record at $30.8 billion. Charlie and I focus on this operational figure and urge you to do so as well. The GAAP figure, absent our adjustment, fluctuates wildly and capriciously at every reporting date. Note its acrobatic behavior in 2022, which is in no way unusual:

The GAAP earnings are 100% misleading when viewed quarterly or even annually. Capital gains, to be sure, have been hugely important to Berkshire over past decades, and we expect them to be meaningfully positive in future decades. But their quarter-by-quarter gyrations, regularly and mindlessly headlined by media, totally misinform investors.

A second positive development for Berkshire last year was our purchase of Alleghany Corporation, a property-casualty insurer captained by Joe Brandon. I’ve worked with Joe in the past, and he understands both Berkshire and insurance. Alleghany delivers special value to us because Berkshire’s unmatched financial strength allows its insurance subsidiaries to follow valuable and enduring investment strategies unavailable to virtually all competitors. 

Aided by Alleghany, our insurance float increased during 2022 from $147 billion to $164 billion. With disciplined underwriting, these funds have a decent chance of being cost-free over time. Since purchasing our first property-casualty insurer in 1967, Berkshire’s float has increased 8,000-fold through acquisitions, operations and innovations. Though not recognized in our financial statements, this float has been an extraordinary asset for Berkshire. New shareholders can get an understanding of its value by reading our annually updated explanation of float on page A-2. 

************ 

A very minor gain in per-share intrinsic value took place in 2022 through Berkshire share repurchases as well as similar moves at Apple and American Express, both significant investees of ours. At Berkshire, we directly increased your interest in our unique collection of businesses by repurchasing 1.2% of the company’s outstanding shares. At Apple and Amex, repurchases increased Berkshire’s ownership a bit without any cost to us. 

The math isn’t complicated: When the share count goes down, your interest in our many businesses goes up. Every small bit helps if repurchases are made at value-accretive prices. Just as surely, when a company overpays for repurchases, the continuing shareholders lose. At such times, gains flow only to the selling shareholders and to the friendly, but expensive, investment banker who recommended the foolish purchases. 

Gains from value-accretive repurchases, it should be emphasized, benefit all owners – in every respect. Imagine, if you will, three fully-informed shareholders of a local auto dealership, one of whom manages the business. Imagine, further, that one of the passive owners wishes to sell his interest back to the company at a price attractive to the two continuing shareholders. When completed, has this transaction harmed anyone? Is the manager somehow favored over the continuing passive owners? Has the public been hurt? 

When you are told that all repurchases are harmful to shareholders or to the country, or particularly beneficial to CEOs, you are listening to either an economic illiterate or a silver-tongued demagogue (characters that are not mutually exclusive).

Almost endless details of Berkshire’s 2022 operations are laid out on pages K-33 – K-66. Charlie and I, along with many Berkshire shareholders, enjoy poring over the many facts and figures laid out in that section. These pages are not, however, required reading. There are many Berkshire centimillionaires and, yes, billionaires who have never studied our financial figures. They simply know that Charlie and I – along with our families and close friends – continue to have very significant investments in Berkshire, and they trust us to treat their money as we do our own. And that is a promise we can make. 

************ 

Finally, an important warning: Even the operating earnings figure that we favor can easily be manipulated by managers who wish to do so. Such tampering is often thought of as sophisticated by CEOs, directors and their advisors. Reporters and analysts embrace its existence as well. Beating “expectations” is heralded as a managerial triumph. 

That activity is disgusting. It requires no talent to manipulate numbers: Only a deep desire to deceive is required. “Bold imaginative accounting,” as a CEO once described his deception to me, has become one of the shames of capitalism.

58 Years – and a Few Figures 

In 1965, Berkshire was a one-trick pony, the owner of a venerable – but doomed – New England textile operation. With that business on a death march, Berkshire needed an immediate fresh start. Looking back, I was slow to recognize the severity of its problems. 

And then came a stroke of good luck: National Indemnity became available in 1967, and we shifted our resources toward insurance and other non-textile operations. 

Thus began our journey to 2023, a bumpy road involving a combination of continuous savings by our owners (that is, by their retaining earnings), the power of compounding, our avoidance of major mistakes and – most important of all – the American Tailwind. America would have done fine without Berkshire. The reverse is not true. Berkshire now enjoys major ownership in an unmatched collection of huge and diversified businesses. 

Let’s first look at the 5,000 or so publicly-held companies that trade daily on NASDAQ, the NYSE and related venues. Within this group is housed the members of the S&P 500 Index, an elite collection of large and well-known American companies. 

In aggregate, the 500 earned $1.8 trillion in 2021. I don’t yet have the final results for 2022. Using, therefore, the 2021 figures, only 128 of the 500 (including Berkshire itself) earned $3 billion or more. Indeed, 23 lost money. 

At yearend 2022, Berkshire was the largest owner of eight of these giants: American Express, Bank of America, Chevron, Coca-Cola, HP Inc., Moody’s, Occidental Petroleum and Paramount Global. In addition to those eight investees, Berkshire owns 100% of BNSF and 92% of BH Energy, each with earnings that exceed the $3 billion mark noted above ($5.9 billion at BNSF and $4.3 billion at BHE). Were these companies publicly-owned, they would replace two present members of the 500. 

All told, our ten controlled and non-controlled behemoths leave Berkshire more broadly aligned with the country’s economic future than is the case at any other U.S. company. (This calculation leaves aside “fiduciary” operations such as pension funds and investment companies.) In addition, Berkshire’s insurance operation, though conducted through many individually-managed subsidiaries, has a value comparable to BNSF or BHE. 

As for the future, Berkshire will always hold a boatload of cash and U.S. Treasury bills along with a wide array of businesses. We will also avoid behavior that could result in any uncomfortable cash needs at inconvenient times, including financial panics and unprecedented insurance losses. Our CEO will always be the Chief Risk Officer – a task it is irresponsible to delegate. Additionally, our future CEOs will have a significant part of their net worth in Berkshire shares, bought with their own money. And yes, our shareholders will continue to save and prosper by retaining earnings. 

At Berkshire, there will be no finish line.

Some Surprising Facts About Federal Taxes

During the decade ending in 2021, the United States Treasury received about $32.3 trillion in taxes while it spent $43.9 trillion. 

Though economists, politicians and many of the public have opinions about the consequences of that huge imbalance, Charlie and I plead ignorance and firmly believe that near-term economic and market forecasts are worse than useless. Our job is to manage Berkshire’s operations and finances in a manner that will achieve an acceptable result over time and that will preserve the company’s unmatched staying power when financial panics or severe worldwide recessions occur. Berkshire also offers some modest protection from runaway inflation, but this attribute is far from perfect. Huge and entrenched fiscal deficits have consequences. 

The $32 trillion of revenue was garnered by the Treasury through individual income taxes (48%), social security and related receipts (341⁄2%), corporate income tax payments (81⁄2%) and a wide variety of lesser levies. Berkshire’s contribution via the corporate income tax was $32 billion during the decade, almost exactly a tenth of 1% of all money that the Treasury collected.

And that means – brace yourself – had there been roughly 1,000 taxpayers in the U.S. matching Berkshire’s payments, no other businesses nor any of the country’s 131 million households would have needed to pay any taxes to the federal government. Not a dime.

************ 

Millions, billions, trillions – we all know the words, but the sums involved are almost impossible to comprehend. Let’s put physical dimensions to the numbers: 

If you convert $1 million into newly-printed $100 bills, you will have a stack that reaches your chest. 

Perform the same exercise with $1 billion – this is getting exciting! – and the stack reaches about 3⁄4 of a mile into the sky. 

Finally, imagine piling up $32 billion, the total of Berkshire’s 2012-21 federal income tax payments. Now the stack grows to more than 21 miles in height, about three times the level at which commercial airplanes usually cruise. 

When it comes to federal taxes, individuals who own Berkshire can unequivocally state “I gave at the office.”

************ 

At Berkshire we hope and expect to pay much more in taxes during the next decade. We owe the country no less: America’s dynamism has made a huge contribution to whatever success Berkshire has achieved – a contribution Berkshire will always need. We count on the American Tailwind and, though it has been becalmed from time to time, its propelling force has always returned. 

I have been investing for 80 years – more than one-third of our country’s lifetime. Despite our citizens’ penchant – almost enthusiasm – for self-criticism and self-doubt, I have yet to see a time when it made sense to make a long-term bet against America. And I doubt very much that any reader of this letter will have a different experience in the future.

Nothing Beats Having a Great Partner 

Charlie and I think pretty much alike. But what it takes me a page to explain, he sums up in a sentence. His version, moreover, is always more clearly reasoned and also more artfully – some might add bluntly – stated. Here are a few of his thoughts, many lifted from a very recent podcast: 

• The world is full of foolish gamblers, and they will not do as well as the patient investor. • If you don’t see the world the way it is, it’s like judging something through a distorted lens.
• All I want to know is where I’m going to die, so I’ll never go there. And a related thought: Early on, write your desired obituary – and then behave accordingly.
• If you don’t care whether you are rational or not, you won’t work on it. Then you will stay irrational and get lousy results.
• Patience can be learned. Having a long attention span and the ability to concentrate on one thing for a long time is a huge advantage.
• You can learn a lot from dead people. Read of the deceased you admire and detest.
• Don’t bail away in a sinking boat if you can swim to one that is seaworthy.
• A great company keeps working after you are not; a mediocre company won’t do that.
• Warren and I don’t focus on the froth of the market. We seek out good long-term investments and stubbornly hold them for a long time.
• Ben Graham said, “Day to day, the stock market is a voting machine; in the long term it’s a weighing machine.” If you keep making something more valuable, then some wise person is going to notice it and start buying.
• There is no such thing as a 100% sure thing when investing. Thus, the use of leverage is dangerous. A string of wonderful numbers times zero will always equal zero. Don’t count on getting rich twice.
• You don’t, however, need to own a lot of things in order to get rich.
• You have to keep learning if you want to become a great investor. When the world changes, you must change.
• Warren and I hated railroad stocks for decades, but the world changed and finally the country had four huge railroads of vital importance to the American economy. We were slow to recognize the change, but better late than never.
• Finally, I will add two short sentences by Charlie that have been his decision-clinchers for decades: “Warren, think more about it. You’re smart and I’m right.” And so it goes. I never have a phone call with Charlie without learning something. And, while he makes me think, he also makes me laugh. 

************

I will add to Charlie’s list a rule of my own: 

Find a very smart high-grade partner – preferably slightly older than you – and then listen very carefully to what he says. 

A Family Gathering in Omaha 

Charlie and I are shameless. Last year, at our first shareholder get-together in three years, we greeted you with our usual commercial hustle. From the opening bell, we went straight for your wallet. In short order, our See’s kiosk sold you eleven tons of nourishing peanut brittle and chocolates. In our P.T. Barnum pitch, we promised you longevity. After all, what else but candy from See’s could account for Charlie and me making it to 99 and 92? 

I know you can’t wait to hear the specifics of last year’s hustle. 

On Friday, the doors were open from noon until 5 p.m., and our candy counters rang up 2,690 individual sales. On Saturday, See’s registered an additional 3,931 transactions between 7 a.m. and 4:30 p.m., despite the fact that 61⁄2 of the 91⁄2 operating hours occurred while our movie and the question-and-answer session were limiting commercial traffic.

Do the math: See’s rang up about 10 sales per minute during its prime operating time (racking up $400,309 of volume during the two days), with all the goods purchased at a single location selling products that haven’t been materially altered in 101 years. 

What worked for See’s in the days of Henry Ford’s model T works now. 

************ 

Charlie, I, and the entire Berkshire bunch look forward to seeing you in Omaha on May 5-6. We will have a good time and so will you. 

February 25, 2023 Warren E. Buffett Chairman of the Board

巿場的聲音-20230419

匯率: 日元持續弱，一年間由121升至151-->131-->134兌1美元，歐元亦很弱，由0.93升至1.05-->0.93-->0.91兌1美元，人民幣由6.34升至7.33-->6.87兌換1美元。澳元亦弱，一年間由1.31升至1.62 -->1.48, 英鎊一年間由0.76升至-->0.81-->0.88兌1美元。BITCOIN由48199元一直下跌至15504-->30136, ETHE由3579元一直下跌至883-->2078。

債券: 二年美國國債由2.26%一直升至5.08-->4.20%, 十年美元國債由2.31%一直升至4.34-->3.57%, 三十年美元國債由2.41%一直升至4.43-->3.78%, 十年英國國債由1.53%一直升至4.63-->3.88%, 十年日本國債由0.16%一直升至0.55-->0.48%, 十年澳洲國債由2.76%一直升至4.23-->3.48%

股巿: S&P由4637一直下跌至3492-->4150, 上證由3251一直下跌至2863-->3393, 恒指由22000一直下跌至14836-->20650。

能源: 油價由97.48元升至123.68元, 最近又輾轉跌回80.86, 天然氣由6升至9.9, 最近又輾轉跌回2.4。

農作物: WHEAT由980元升至1284元, 最近又輾轉跌回697, CORN由730元升至827元, 最近又輾轉跌回676, RICE由16.0元一直上升至18.0-->17.4元，糖價由19元一直偏弱後反彈至17.2-->24.51元。

貴金屬: 金價一年間由1900跌回1618-->2018，銀價創新高，由24.5元一直跌至17.4-->25.28元, 銅價開始反彈由4.6一直跌至3.14-->4.08元。

巿場方向：恒指5天在20500-->20650, M5, 20472，M10, 20408, M30, 20002.  標普5天由4130-->4150， M5,4136,  M10,4119,  M30, 4019。英國通脹10.4%，利率4.25%。美國4.98%, LT3.28%，失業率3.5，利率4.83%。

波動比例: 53/76恒指成份股在過去5天都有漲幅，53/76在恒指成份股在過去10天都有漲幅，71/76恒指成份股在過去120天都有漲幅。

個股方面: 中港股巿仍然在波動，整體上升的軌跡逐漸確認。美國股巿在財長耶倫預示加息的步伐應該會放慢，和聯儲局一個唱淡一個唱好，所以巿場可以決定指數的走勢演譯。聯儲局去年9月議息時預測來年利率最高為4.6厘。

佈局策略：黃仁勛眼中的OpenAI

OpenAI 沒有很好描述 GPT-4 的新突破

-GPT-4 的突破之一是可以同時學習語言和圖像內容，就跟我們人類學東西一樣，閱讀圖文比只看文字更容易理解事物。比如，你給一個隻看過馬的人介紹斑馬，對方不容易理解，但如果你說 “斑馬和馬外形相近，但有黑白條紋”，對方就能把馬的樣子的斑馬的語言描述建立關聯。GPT-4 具有這樣的學習能力。

如何理解 ChatGPT 是 AI 的 iPhone 時刻

-電腦的最初四五十年是線性發展，就像水、冰、水蒸氣之間的關係，直到 Windows 95 顛覆了一切。之後又是一段時間的線性增長，直到互聯網的普及，再之後是雲、iPhone、移動雲。其中，iPhone 讓人更容易編寫和分發應用，誕生了數以百萬計的應用程式，讓電腦程式設計大眾化，消除技術鴻溝。現在再看 ChatGPT、人工智慧程式設計，我們可以用人類語言讓電腦做事情，不需要 Python、Java、 Pascal……

設計晶片有多難？想像一下從頭開始設計一座比紐約大千倍的城市

-英偉達做的最難事情之一是設計晶片……想像一個比紐約成大 1000 倍的城市，然後從頭開始重組它，找出每個建築最佳位置，餐廳、公園等等，各種排列組合已經破表。英偉達只有借助人工智能才有可能解決這些問題。

未來五到十年，人工智能將要解決的最重要問題是數位生物學

-借助人工智慧，人類學會理解蛋白質，理解其生化物質的作用、聚合方式、特定三維形狀下可以實現的功能，從而可以從一個蛋白質的期望功能出發，合成具有某些更好特定能力的蛋白質。